planet earth looks blue

The WHO says the swine flu shows no sign of abatement.  With the first death in the United States, a toddler who had just returned from a family visit to Mexico, and the official spread of the pig pathogen to Germany and Austria, as well as Scotland, Israel, Spain, New Zealand, Canada, and the US, the questions, fear, and potential for pandemic are swirling up into a whirlwind of danger.

Europe is calling for all non-necessary travel to the United States or Mexico to be stopped.  They are not banning flights, only asking their citizens to use common sense.  So far cases are minimal beyond the western hemisphere.  It also hasn’t spread south of Mexico.  The United States and Mexico are far from banning travel, and have criticized Europe for over-reacting, saying the virus isn’t that bad - yet.  Exactly.  Shouldn’t governments be taking precautionary measures to protect their citizens?  Would the swine flu be contained to Mexico if travel was halted immediately, instead of waiting until it was too late?

The other issue is vaccinations.  Nobody who had a flu shot this year is protected from the swine flu.  Unfortunately it doesn’t work like that.  The United States, and most western nations have a decent amount of vaccinations, some with enough to immunize their entire populationa , and others fending for ways to increase their reserves.  The US in particular is worried because most of its flu vaccines are manufactured outside of the country.  There is only one plant in Pennsylvania capable of producing about 50 million doses.  Funding could increase this number, but what about poorer nations?  How can they deal with the virus?

And of course the huge x-factor - what is swine flu itself capable of?  How many times, and how quickly can it mutate?  A pathogen that is able to transfer from human to human is able to far transcend its humble, harmless origins.  Is it possible that all of these millions of vaccine doses could become obsolete?  If so, then what?  25 million people died from the Spanish flu earlier this century.  Today, we know a lot more about protecting ourselves, and containment, and are much better equipped to manufacture and deliver vaccines, so I would hope we wouldn’t have anything close to a repeat of the past.  Today however, we are facing a financial crisis, and it seems as if, in the United States at least, we are hesitant to ‘overreact’ enough, in fear of crippling the economy, which by the way shrunk 6.1% in the first quarter.