planet earth looks blue

Russian Igor Panarin has been predicting the fall of America since 1998.  According to Panarin, a former KGB analyst and present dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats, the US will began to fall apart at the seams next fall, and by the summer of 2010, have completely collapsed, with a civil war that will permanently divide us.  He claims that there is a 45-55% chance that his predictions will come to pass.  With those odds, care to play?

There are a slew of reasons for Panarin’s crystal ball analysis, from our $11 trillion debt, moral degradation, shifting demographics, divisions among the elites, and the way our government is set up in the first place, specifically the self-interest of states vs. the federal government.  Well, I’d like to add our ongoing oil wars, disrespect for labor and the working class, and, while we’re going off on the faults of America, obsession with reality tv, and I believe we consume way too much meat in this country.  I’m sure if Panarin strapped on his fanny pack and hiking boots and took a little trek from sea to shining sea, he’s find a thousand more things to complain about if that’s what he’s looking for.  But, that doesn’t mean we’re going to be carved up and handed out to the rest of the world, and no, you’re not getting Alaska back.  

Panarin’s map of the United States is broken up into six new republics, The Californian Republic, which will be influenced by China because of its Chinese population; The Texas Republic, which will of course be influenced by Mexico; The Central North American Republic, unified by the Native American population and influenced by Canada; Atlantic America, which will be with the EU; Hawaii for Japan; and of course Alaska for Russia.  I’d don’t think that Panarin has much of an understanding of the demographics in the US, as this looks like a more naive break up of the states.  Since he’s predicting a civil war, who does he think is going to start picking up the guns?  

As to if something is going to happen or not, I don’t necessarily disagree with Panarin, but as to his analysis on how, when, and how serious, which he claims is founded on classified information he receives from FAPSI (the Russian equivalent of the National Security Agency), I completely disagree.  Apparently they are eating it up in Russia though, excited with the prospect of taking back Alaska, and along with China, taking a bigger role in world affairs.  The danger that I agree with as a possibility is if we continue on this road of blaming each other for our problems.  If we have social unrest because we make group X scapegoats, and then group Y gets angry with group Z, and so on.  (Yes I’m referring to race wars).  But this could only happen if we continue viewing each other as reasons for our own problems.  And according to my crystal ball, we have a few decades before the situation was ripe.  In the end, let’s not play this version of Russian roulette, whatever our chances may be, but examine our problems.  I think we have better data on what our issues are and how to solve them then Igor Panarin.  

2009-01-01